Senator Reid behind in the polls. So?
Today, being Sunday, means lots of news and commentary in both the Las Vegas Review-Journal and Las Vegas Sun. Both of which I read, along with the Pahrump Valley Times (sort of a subsidiary of the Review-Journal) and the Pahrump Mirror (an independent).
The front page of the Review Journal headlines “Reid faces uphill battle.” The subtitle reads “Polls show potential GOP challengers would beat Democrat.”
Tarkanian and Lowden vs Harry Reid:
The RJ shows two opinion polls.
“If the 2010 election for Nevada’s U.S. Senate seat were held today, for whom would you vote if the choice were between Harry Reid, the Democrat, and Danny Tarkanian, the Republican?”
| Tarkanian | 49% |
| Reid | 38% |
| Undecided | 13% |
“If the 2010 election for Nevada’s U.S. Senate seat were held today, for whom would you vote if the choice were between Harry Reid, the Democrat, and Sue Lowden, the Republican?”
| Lowden | 45% |
| Reid | 40% |
| Undecided | 15% |
The source of the poll was Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc. Margin of error: plus or minus 5 percentage points.
The RJ writes: “Reid’s status makes him an icon of the Democratic Party and ties him to Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., and President Barack Obama….”
The inference is that Nancy Pelosi is sort of viewed as the Darth Vader of the Democratic Party; that both Pelosi and Obama represent an albatross weight around Senator’s Reid’s neck. I’m not at all sure of that.
Danny Tarkanian
Danny Tarkanian has his campaign website here. Inside his site here. is where you begin to learn something about him. His video (above) doesn’t say much except he is concerned about spending money. He doesn’t say what he would do different. But it is early yet.
In 2006, Danny earned 230,000 votes in the race for Nevada Secretary of State. He lost.
Tarkanian is a nice looking fellow. Son of Jerry Tarkanian, the basketball guru of UNLV fame.
Sue Lowden
Sue Lowden is a total stranger to me. I don’t keep up with her. She is the Nevada Republican Party’s Chairman (or woman). There is a website about her here. Whether it is her site or not I can’t tell. Actually it is a blog called The Lowden Line.
Obviously she is an attractive woman which should garner her some votes. She hasn’t officially announced she’s running for the Senate yet, but is expected to do so.
Tarkanian and Lowden will have to run against each other in the 2010 primary. The winner will then represent the Republican Party in running against Senator Reid in the general election.
The question is who would be favored to win the Republican primary election? The RJ has a poll on that as well.
“If the 2010 Republican primary election for Nevada’s U.S. Senate seat were held today for whom would you vote if the choices were:
| Danny Tarkanian | 33% |
| Sue Lowden | 14% |
| Sharron Angle | 5% |
| Chuck Kozak | 1% |
| John Chachas | – |
| Undecided | 47% |
Source: Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc. Margin of error: plus or minus 6 percentage points.
Lowden is likely to be the Republican Party’s “insider candidate” since she is currently Chairman of the Nevada Republican Party. That should fetch her some campaign money. But on the other hand, she would appear to be tied to Governor Jim Gibbons, which I suspect will be the “albatross weight” around her neck. Then there is Senator John Ensign, which constitutes another weight on any Republican running. Plus there is the lack of Republican Leadership at the federal level which isn’t likely to be much help, unless one considers Rush Limbaugh as the primary Republican Leader instead of Michael “baby” Steele.
Reid, Tarkanian and Lowden
I’m surprised that Tarkanian polled at 33% beating Lowden. Sharron Angle, Chuck Kozak, and John Chachas don’t really appear to be in the running. But if that list of Republican candidates last and run in the primary it is going to eat up a lot of Republican money being spent during the Republican primary.
And money, an essential ingredient of a political campaign, is what Senator Reid has or expects to have: $25 million. Plus, Reid has juice in his position as Senate Majority Leader. Additionally Reid brings bacon (or pork) to Nevada which secures gratitude of his constituents without spending his own money.
The RJ likes to portray Senator Reid as a hopeless underdog, but I think it is the RJ’s wishful thinking. Reid may not be flashy but he is steady. We can thank Reid for the financial starvation of Yucca Mountain. If Reid were to lose Nevada would be giving up a whole lot in Congress. Right now, with health care reform in the balance, Democrats won’t be likely to abandon Reid since the Republican Party seems hell bent on retaining the status quo which means making the health care insurance industry happy. They’re making lots of money and will be willing to finance Republican candidates to keep their profits flowing in. And, Reid won’t be wholly dependent on Democrats for his re-election. He has “nearly 150 Republican leaders in Nevada” supporting him. Those would be heavy weights in his corner.
Then there is the demographic aspect. Republicans have been kicking Hispanics in the teeth for decades. Here in Pahrump the town tore out after the Hispanic community a couple years ago letting them know they weren’t wanted in Pahrump, making international news in the process. One Mexican restaurant was burned out. Hatred spewed forth all over. It cannot have been a positive move by the Republican Party to oppose the elevation of Sonia Sotomayor to the Supreme Court. If the Hispanics get active here in Nye County and throughout Nevada they can make political life miserable for the Republican Party. You reap what you sow.
Frankly, I think all those Republican candidates would be better served if they held off and ran against John Ensign in 2012.
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